A 514th FTS F-22 taxis at Hill AFB, Utah, March 22.
News came beforehand this ages that the Air Force has accustomed Lockheed Martin a 10-year arrangement to improve the F-22 Raptor. The account trumpeted a $10.8 billion accolade but about all bootless to acknowledgment that it’s a abeyant accord — not a done deal.
Modernizing the Raptor seems as accustomed as putting on an old shoe. The USAF has been advance the 5th bearing air advanced fighter aback about 2003. For the aboriginal decade, the upgrades tended to be piecemeal software patches and accessory accouterments improvements.
In 2014, the Pentagon launched a annular of added aggressive addition and account action extension. A $6.9 billion affairs alleged Increment 3.2B chip two types of missiles (including long-desired AIM-9X bittersweet missiles and continued ambit AIM-120D) assimilate the F-22. It additionally upgraded the Raptor’s bang adequacy and cryptographic aegis with a new Operational Flight Affairs alleged Update 6. Increment 3.2B became a above aegis accretion affairs with its own baseline amount and agenda estimate.
In the years since, the capabilities added in Increment 3.2B (and 3.2A) accept been bolstered by added advancement programs including Raptor Added Development & Affiliation II (REDI II, address and software updates), the Raptor Agile Assembly & Interactive Development arrangement (RAPID, which bought accouterments for modification activity) and the Follow-on Agile Alimentation for the Raptor arrangement (FASTeR acumen and alimentation improvements).
The new 10-year, $10.8 billon arrangement – alleged Advanced Raptor Enhancement and Sustainment, or ARES – follows these efforts, aiming to accumulate the F-22 aggressive adjoin associate threats at atomic until the aboriginal 2030s.
That seems a abbreviate timeline accustomed that in 2017 Air Force Lt. Gen. Arnold Bunch, aggressive agent to the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, and Lt. Gen. Jerry Harris, Air Force, agent arch of agents for plans, programs and requirements, told the House Armed Casework Committee that the USAF planned to “retain the F-22 until the 2060 timeframe.”
Earlier this year, Air Force Arch of Agents Gen. Charles “CQ” Brown said the Air Force affairs to retire the F-22. His comments acquired an adumbrated timeline aback Lt. Gen. Clinton Hinote, USAF agent arch of agents for strategy, affiliation and requirements, said that the Raptor is a “bridge” to the Air Force’s Abutting Bearing Air Dominance aircraft, accepted to be operating in the 2030s.
“It’s [the F-22] aloof not action to be the appropriate apparatus for the job,” Hinote said, “especially aback we’re talking about arresting our accompany like Taiwan and Japan and the Philippines adjoin a Chinese blackmail that grows and grows.”
Laying out about $11 billion for upgrades to an aeroplane that’s not action to “be the appropriate tool” by the time ARES finishes up seems a absurd assignment — if you booty the indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity arrangement accolade for granted.
A United States Air Force F-22 Raptor fighter jet performs an aeriform affectation during the Singapore … [ ] Airshow media examination on February 9, 2020 in Singapore. (Photo by Suhaimi Abdullah)
All Approaching Funding
Lockheed Martin’s affairs administrator for the F-22, Kevin “Red” Smith, acknowledges that the $10.8 billion accustomed for ARES is “all approaching funding.”
“Nothing was awarded like that,” Smith observes. “It’s aloof little drops of action that arise forth over the time anatomy of this arrangement which is for ten years.”
Lockheed is the sole-source prime for ARES and Smith adds that there are “no bright audible commitments that [explain] how the casework are allotment the $10.8 billion.”
He does reassure, on Lockheed’s behalf, that, “We’re blessed to assignment with them [the USAF] on the pieces that arise together.”
Such artlessness artlessly raises assorted questions which Lockheed says can alone be addressed by the Air Force. The Air Force did not acknowledge to queries about allotment and more.
As acclaimed on GovConWire, ARES is a “potential 10-year, $10.86 billion contract.” The Air Force Action Cycle Management Center answerable $200,000 in budgetary 2021 research, development, analysis and appraisal funds at the time of accolade but there’s littler added detail. According to Smith, the aboriginal assignment adjustment for ARES is “$2 actor account of assignment associated with the F-22.”
What that assignment adjustment is, we don’ t know. Abundant of the advancement action affiliated with ARES is classified, as with best things Raptor. Notably, Smith asserts that ARES is “really about ambience up a affiliation with the Air Force” to accumulate addition and sustainment.
So ARES is not absolutely a addition affairs but maybe a acceptable arrangement for what one should attending like?
Lockheed Martin says it doesn’t apperceive which bit of accouterments or software it adeptness be alive on aboriginal for ARES, although Smith says there’s been some action “in planning and breeze with above-mentioned work.” He expects “numerous arrangement approvals over the abutting few months” and that Lockheed will be “fielding capability” by the end of 2022.
Whether that adequacy is adjourned through ARES isn’t clear. With the FY22 aegis account yet to be absolutely detailed, arrangement approvals would arise not to be guaranteed.
Mark Gunzinger, administrator of approaching concepts and adequacy assessments for the Mitchell Institute, says it’s accessible that the Air Force wants to improve the Raptor, but authoritative that appear depends on the accepted Congress and administration.
“I accept that the Air Force has every absorbed to armamentarium upgrades so the F-22 charcoal viable. Money to do so is action to be future-budget dependent.”
Value For Money
Nearly $11 billion is a apparent block of change, alike by Pentagon standards. But what taxpayers would get for that advance is advisedly cryptic for allocation reasons. That makes it difficult for Americans to adjudicator what affectionate of value-add ARES is for a baby cardinal of airplanes.
The about scattering of F-22s the Air Force owns has been a able-bodied accurate botheration aback above Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, capped assembly at aloof 187 aircraft in 2009. (There’s alike a album adherent to the accountable by the backward Robert F. Door.)
The Air Force says about 186 of the jets abide admitting the cardinal of combat-coded F-22s (those appointed able of aerial action sorties) is up for debate. Some sources put the cardinal at 120 while acquainted that aloof because a Raptor is “combat-coded” that doesn’t beggarly it can go into harm’s way.
In 2020, Air Force Magazine acquired abstracts assuming that alone about bisected of the absolute Raptor fleet, on average, was absolutely able of assuming any assigned missions. In May of that year I wrote an commodity wherein retired U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General and accepted Mitchell Institute administrator David Deptula assured that aloof 33 F-22s are accessible to action at a moment’s notice.
The numbers advance some questions on activated upgrades and cost. For example, how abounding Raptors will absolutely get ARES mods?
If one goes with the almost cardinal of combat-coded airplanes, about 120 would be upgraded. The simple algebraic would again assignment out to about $90 actor in upgrades per Raptor if all $10.8 billion is committed. For comparison, new-build F-35As are currently priced at $78 actor admitting as Forbes contributor Sebastien Roblin noted, that amount may increase.
Some sources adumbration that the cardinal of ARES-modified Raptors adeptness be as aerial as 143, which would accompany the simplified assemblage amount aback to about $75.5 million, on par with the F-35. The allegory is absorbing on added than amount area aback there’s a acceptable achievability that some of the upgrades slated for the latest Block 4 assembly tranche of F-35s may be aggregate with ARES-modified F-22s as well.
The Air Force’s agent arch of agents for strategy, integration, and requirements, Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, afresh said that the F-35 of the approaching will be “very altered from the one we’re affairs today.”
Indeed, Block 4 F-35s are accepted to affection added alarm and cyberbanking warfare capabilities, the adeptness to backpack new weapons and bigger abstracts administration capabilities. Which of these the F-22 may allotment is accessible to catechism but tests like Project Hydra (which approved accompanying datalinks amid F-35s, a U-2 and F-22) and a new accessible systems architectonics which ARES is accepted to accommodate arresting acceptable systems commonality.
F-22A Raptor performs during AVALON 2019 – the Australian International Airshow and Aerospace & … [ ] Defence Exposition in Geelong, Australia on March 01, 2019. (Photo by Recep Sakar/Anadolu Agency)
Given that General Hinote mentioned the charge for “a bigger air-to-air weapon, a bigger ship-killing weapon, and a bigger surface-to-air-missile-killing weapon,” the F-22 could be in band for the AIM-260 almsman to the AIM-120, the AGM-158 Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) and apparent to air missile-spoofing directed activity systems.
Scheduling Aural The Schedule
Without animadversion from the Air Force, it’s adamantine to get added specific. It’s additionally difficult to actuate how the account and Lockheed could complete a abounding bulk of ARES modifications aural the 10-year timeline. A few ARES advancement initiatives adeptness get underway in 2022 but added aggressive assignment would apparently not arise until 2023 or 2024, abridgement the appointed window (Oct. 31, 2031) to complete the addition to seven years or less.
In that time the Air Force will accept to anxiously plan the numbers of Raptors it pulls out of account for annex face-lifting and upgrade. Red Smith mentions the agenda transformation tools/techniques that Lockheed will apply to accomplish the upgrades with accessible digital-twin and added agenda models acid alertness and validation time.
A ample cardinal of the ARES arrangement modifications absorb alone software so Raptors could apparently accept them after abrogation their bounded flight lines. Others, Smith admits, will be done in concert with accouterments upgrades. How continued will the accouterments updates take?
It’s acutely a catechism Lockheed would rather the Air Force acknowledgment with Smith afraid to say added than they’ll crave several months. That could beggarly 2 to 6 months or added as some of the updates are “pretty intrusive” according to Smith. It acutely agency a allocation of the baby agile of F-22s could be sidelined.
Mark Gunzinger expects that the USAF will “schedule in so abounding a ages affected to not booty bottomward so abundant accommodation at any accustomed time because of the [security] risk. That said, aback you accept an aircraft in such baby numbers, you lose allotment of that force. It’s not action to be able to acknowledge bound in a time of crisis. It does access risk.”
Assuming a amount of 72 months for ARES to absolutely be up to speed, the Air Force would be able to cull two jets a month, modernizing 144 Raptors by the program’s end date. That’s if it all goes calmly and acceptable assumes overlap, acceptation 4 to 8 jets adeptness be in modification at any accustomed time.
A US Air Force F-22 Raptor flies during the Australian International Airshow in Melbourne on March … [ ] 5, 2017. Photo MAL FAIRCLOUGH/AFP via Getty Images)
It additionally assumes the money is absolutely there. Why would the Air Force affair an accolade and a columnist absolution for a arrangement for which allotment has yet to be committed, for which advancement capacity are deficient and for which the timeline is fuzzy?
“They acceptable accept a plan, accept a schedule,” Gunzinger says. “They may accept [informal] abutment for allotment acceptable to go ahead. We aloof don’t know.”
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